098
FXUS66 KLOX 212346
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
346 PM PST Sat Feb 21 2026

.SYNOPSIS...21/249 PM.

High pressure aloft building in over the region will bring a
warming trend into early next week. While temperatures will
remain below normal today, temperatures above seasonal normals
will develop by Sunday. A storm system will move into northern
California during next week. Most of the area will likely remain
dry. The highest chances of precipitation will be for San Luis
Obispo County between Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...21/1211 PM.

Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short
term period. At upper levels, ridge will build over the Southwest
through Monday then weaken on Tuesday. At the surface, offshore
pressure gradients will strengthen through Monday then shift
weakly onshore on Tuesday.

Forecast-wise for the short term, no significant issues are
anticipated. Skies will remain mostly clear to partly cloudy
through Tuesday as varying amounts of mid to high level clouds
drift overhead. Also, there could be some return of marine layer
stratus/fog Tuesday morning as onshore gradients return.
Additionally on Tuesday, the far southern part of a weak
atmospheric river will sag across San Luis Obispo county, bringing
a chance of light rain to the county. At this time, rainfall
amounts, if any, across San Luis Obispo county will be less than
one tenth of an inch.

As for winds, offshore pressure gradients are forecast to peak in
the -3.0 to -4.0 mb range through Monday. However, the upper level
support is on the minimal side. So, there will be some gusty weak
Santa Ana winds through Monday, but any advisory-level gusts will
remain localized.

As for temperatures, highs will be on the upswing for all areas
through Monday with coastal/valley temperatures topping out in the
70s to lower 80s by Monday. For Tuesday, the return of weak
onshore gradients will bring some slight cooling west of the
mountains, but there will be some slight warming across interior
sections. As for overnight lows, the air mass is moderating and
the weak offshore winds will keep lows a bit higher the next
couple of night. So, do not anticipate the need for any
Frost/Freeze products.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...21/1211 PM.

For the extended, 12Z models continue to exhibit decent synoptic
agreement. At upper levels, near persistent conditions will
prevail on Wednesday, but the ridge will strengthen Thursday
through Saturday. Near the surface, weak onshore flow will prevail
on Wednesday, but weak offshore flow will develop Thursday through
Saturday.

Forecast-wise, still no significant issues are anticipated. On
Wednesday, there will continue to be a chance of light rain across
San Luis Obispo county, but dry conditions will prevail elsewhere.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be very similar to Tuesday.

For Thursday through Saturday, the building upper level ridge and
weak offshore flow will allow for a warming trend across the area
with temperatures peaking on Friday (in the mid 70s to mid 80s
west of the mountains). Skies will remain mostly clear to partly
cloudy, based on high cloud coverage. There will be some offshore
winds, but the winds will be weak and localized.

&&

.AVIATION...21/2345Z.

At 2345z at KLAX, no inversion and no marine layer were present.

High confidence in TAFs with VFR conditions and light winds
through the period. There is a 20% chance of VLIFR conds at KPRB
after 09Z-16Z, and a 20% chance of MVFR/IFR cigs for KSBP and
KSMX 09Z-16z.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR TAF. Any east wind component
on Sunday morning is expected to remain less than 7 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

&&

.MARINE...21/247 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. SCA level southerly winds for zone 670 in the late
afternoon through overnight hours, otherwise moderate confidence
in conditions remaining below SCA levels through Monday, then NW
winds will potentially increase to SCA levels across much of the
outer waters Monday night into Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in
conditions remaining below SCA levels through Wednesday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in
conditions remaining below SCA levels through Wednesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Sunday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson
AVIATION...Gomberg
MARINE...Gomberg
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office